This article explores why democratic states avoid conflict with allies during power parity situations. Building on prior research that linked observable state capabilities to uncertainty, the study shows democratic alliances effectively reduce this risk without relying solely on aggregated military strength.

Research Design: The analysis examines international relations data from multiple NATO-member countries facing potential challengers.

Key Finding: Democratic alliances significantly lower conflict probabilities at power parity compared to non-democratic alliances. This occurs because democratic coordination reduces uncertainty.

Why It Matters: The findings challenge conventional wisdom about alliance effectiveness, demonstrating that democratic cooperation is crucial for managing international tensions.