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Timing of Border Settlements: New Evidence Challenges Democratic Peace Theory
Insights from the Field
Democratic Peace Theory
Territorial Disputes
Border Settlements
Institutional Explanations
International Relations
BJPS
2 Stata files
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Dataverse
The Cart and the Horse Redux: The Timing of Border Settlement and Joint Democracy was authored by Andrew P. Owsiak and John A. Vasquez. It was published by Cambridge in BJPS in 2019.

Does the democratic peace theory hold true for disputes over borders? This study examines two competing theories—democratic peace and territorial peace—and evaluates their accuracy with empirical data. It reveals that nearly all contiguous dyads resolve border issues before transitioning to joint democracies, while most non-contiguous pairs settle such conflicts prior to becoming democrats despite having more territory-related disputes elsewhere.

Data & Methods: Analyzes historical patterns of border settlements across multiple regions and time periods using comparative case study analysis.

Key Findings: Border disputes are typically resolved before countries become joint democracies, regardless of their initial political systems or the nature of neighboring states' regimes during conflict periods.

This finding aligns more closely with the territorial peace hypothesis than democratic peace theory. Crucially, it weakens a central argument of democratic peace advocates—that institutional factors in democratic states explain peaceful dispute resolution—by demonstrating that prior settlement may be driven by other political dynamics.

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British Journal of Political Science
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